Proof of work for strategy

The assurance layer for high-stakes decisions. Evidence graded, killed routes preserved, approvals named — whoever signs can verify the method

Confidence you can trace

Computed from the evidence, not asked of a model. Same inputs, same number

Runs in your infrastructure

Your VPC, your sign-on, no access for us. Open-weight models if you need them

A record that stays live

Evidence re-propagates when the world moves. The answer stays current

One platform. Your side of the table

Deliver strategy your clients can audit

Your name on the work — with the method behind it, verifiable. We license software and never hold the client relationship

Your brand on the record

The pack carries your firm’s name. The method is attributed underneath it

We never hold the client

We license software. Firms deliver; you keep the relationship

Partner-grade supervision

Interrogate the work in minutes — every claim opens to its evidence

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Built for consequential questions

The questions your clients bring you — and pay you to be right about

  • Should we enter this market?
  • Why is margin deteriorating?
  • Which customer segment should we prioritise?
  • Should we adopt this AI platform?
  • Should we change pricing?
  • Should we outsource, acquire, restructure or invest?
  • Why is the transformation programme not delivering?

— and whether you can defend the answer to the board, investors, lenders or auditors

Analysis is now cheap to produce and expensive to trust. When every competitor’s deck looks machine-made, the work you did differently stops being visible — and gets priced like the work you didn’t

Share of performance explained by each elementBased on multivariate regression analysis, %
  • Quality of process to exploit analysis and reach decision
  • Industry and company variables
  • Quantity and detail of analysis performed

Lovallo & Sibony, “The Case for Behavioral Strategy”, McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010

Back in 2010, McKinsey studied 1,048 major corporate decisions and found that decision process mattered six times more than the quality of analysis. Yet every marker of good process — surfacing uncertainties, admitting contrary views, weighting contribution by skill rather than rank — is a property of how the work was done, and none of it appears in the finished document. In 2010, a polished document at least implied the process behind it. That correlation no longer holds — and the people who sign off on your client’s decisions, the boards, investment committees and trustees, have started asking for the part that never made the deck

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Everyone knows the method. We make it unskippable

01

Frame

Your client’s question gets contested before anyone bills a day against it. The platform drafts rival framings in parallel and sharpens each with kick-off questions; the partner picks and edits the one the engagement will run on

02

Hypothesise

The whole decision space goes on the table, not just the obvious answer. The platform builds the hypothesis tree from the client’s real data; your team prunes and extends it, and every branch is stated so evidence can kill it

03

Specify

What would settle each hypothesis — and what would kill it — is fixed before the evidence arrives, and the data request list follows from it. No goalposts move later, and no favourite answer quietly confirms itself

04

Test

Client data, third-party fact, interview, inference: every claim carries the grade of what it rests on. Your partner can see at a glance which parts of the answer are solid and which are judgement — before signing off, not after

05

Kill or Keep

Hypotheses that fail their gate die on the record with the reason, and killed routes are preserved. Your client gets the case against the recommendation as well as the case for it, which is what makes the case for it credible

06

Approve

A named partner approves, amends or overrides at the final gate, and every intervention is logged: who, what, when, why. When the decision is questioned a year later, your firm has the answer rather than a memory

Provenance is not promised. It is built

Renegotiate before refinancingconfidence 0.61 → 0.72 · revisedApprovalnamed, loggedMargin loss: pricing0.86 · supportedRefinance on current terms0.78 → 0.41 · contestedVolume recovers FY27killed · preservedClient P&Ltier 1 · dataTerm sheettier 2 · newCFO interviewtier 3 · qualForecasttier 4 · inferred
  • supported
  • new evidence, re-propagating
  • killed, preserved

Anyone may overrule the graph. No one may do it silently

The Decision Assurance Pack

Ten parts, and none of them written up afterwards — the pack falls out of how the work was done. It ships under your firm’s name, and it stays live once the engagement closes

  • 01 The evidence chain, tiered
  • 02 Known unknowns, recorded
  • 03 The assumption register
  • 04 The alternatives log
  • 05 The counter-case — and why it lost
  • 06 The hypothesis and its go/kill criteria
  • 07 Killed routes, preserved
  • 08 Open risks, explicitly owned
  • 09 Approvals and overrides, named
  • 10 The honest number

When the world moves — new data, a revised forecast — the evidence re-propagates and the answer updates. It updates under your firm’s name, and your firm is who the client calls

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Every answer stands on evidence, judgement and a living record

Scales of justice in dark teal light

Evidence, Weighed

Circuit-board brain sculpture

Judgement, Amplified

Glass hourglass with blue sand

The Record, Alive

What partners ask before they commit

Yours. The engagement, the record and the Decision Assurance Pack carry your firm’s name; the method is attributed underneath it. Your client is buying your judgement, delivered to a standard they can check — not a software product with your logo on it.

No, and the difference is testable. The core is an evidence graph with deterministic belief propagation: confidence is computed from evidence tiers and the rules on each edge, so the same inputs always produce the same number and every movement traces to the evidence that caused it. Language models draft, summarise and pattern-match inside that structure — they are never asked how confident they are. That mechanism is three years of engineering.

A chat assistant speeds up drafting; it cannot testify to how the work was done. The assurance lives in the structure around the models, not in the models: go/kill criteria fixed before the evidence arrives, confidence computed rather than asked for, kills and overrides logged at the moment they happen. A template asks the team to write the record up afterwards — which is exactly the discipline that slips when the deadline is close. Here the record is a by-product of doing the work, not a second job after it.

One live engagement at a time, not a firm-wide rollout. A partner runs a real piece of work on the platform with us alongside them, and the argument is settled by whether the engagement went better. Rollouts that start with a training programme and a mandate are how software becomes shelfware in a partnership.

The analyst layer’s grind — data pulls, model rebuilds, deck cycles, storyline assembly — becomes platform work, so a partner and a small team carry engagements that used to need a pyramid. The gain lands hardest where fees are fixed or value-based; if you bill the pyramid by the hour, the conversation is about what replaces that leverage. Either way, anyone putting a number on your P&L on a public page is guessing — it is a conversation with your numbers in front of us.

By interrogating it rather than trusting a summary. Every claim opens: the evidence underneath it, the tests it survived, the routes that were killed and why. Forming a view takes minutes of targeted checking instead of the old choice between trusting the team or re-deriving the analysis. The final gate is a named human approval — your partner’s name, not a model’s.

The record is the protection, not the exposure. When a decision is challenged later, the firm without one has a deck and some memories; the firm with the pack can show what was known at the time, what was considered, what was rejected and why, and who decided — the same way an audit file has defended professional judgement for a century. The dangerous position is not a documented process; it is an undocumentable one. And nothing in it ships without a named partner choosing to ship it.

It stays in your infrastructure. The platform deploys into your own VPC, where we have no access; data is encrypted in transit and at rest, and access runs through your single sign-on. For the strictest environments it runs entirely on open-weight models you host yourself — no new subprocessor for your clients to approve, and no plaintext leaving your perimeter.

No. Hypothesis3 is a software company — we license the platform and we do not run engagements or hold client relationships. Firms deliver; we build the layer they deliver on.

The Decision Assurance Pack stays live in your client’s hands. When the world moves — new data, a revised forecast — the evidence re-propagates and the answer updates. That is a reason for them to come back to the firm that built it, rather than a study that ages on a shelf.

Hypothesis3 works with advisory firms whose clients are personally accountable for the decision — and are increasingly asked to show how the answer was reached. We build the assurance layer. You keep the client

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Contact

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London
WC2B 4HN
United Kingdom

partners@hypothesis3.com

© 2026 Hypothesis3Proof of work for strategy